House prices to boom by a further £30,000 this year

The house price boom caused by the introduction of the stamp duty holiday could see the average house price across England climb by another £23,000 before the end of the year, should current market trends continue. 

Research by estate and lettings agent, Barrows and Forrester, analysed the average monthly rate of house price growth since the introduction of the stamp duty holiday back in July last year. The analysis reveals that the impact has been notable, with house prices increasing at an average of 0.84% a month across England. 

This has pushed the current average house price across the nation as high as £268,291 at present but should this rate of growth continue for just the remainder of the year, it could add a further £23,376 to the average homes value putting the average house price in England at £291,667. 

The South East could be due to see the biggest boost in the cash value of bricks and mortar, having seen house prices rise at 0.87% a month since the introduction of the stamp duty holiday. Although this isn’t the largest percentage increase, it would see the average house price jump by £31,176 by the end of the year should the current market performance persist. 

The South West could also be due to see house prices climb by a further £26,838 by December and while London has seen the lowest monthly rate of growth since last July at just 0.43%, this rate of growth could still add a further £21,623 to property values this year.

At an average of 1.09% a month, the North West has enjoyed the highest average monthly rate of house price growth since the introduction of the stamp duty holiday. Should this continue, it could push the average house price in the region as high as £205,456, a jump of £21,104.

The East Midlands could also see an increase of more than £20,000, while in the North East and West Midlands the increase would be the lowest, but even still, homeowners could see an increase of £12,139 and £18,206 respectively.

Managing Director of Barrows and Forrester, James Forrester, commented:

“Enough time has passed since the introduction of the stamp duty holiday that we now have a clear picture of just how much it has impacted the property market. To see such strong and consistent growth on a monthly basis, for such a prolonged period of time, really demonstrates the positive impact it’s had on property values and we’re yet to see any signs of the market running low on steam in this respect.

With house prices having already boomed, we’re sure to see more of the same and current trends would suggest homeowners across the nation are due to see the value of their homes climb by a further five figures before the year is out. 

It’s unlikely that we will see an abrupt decline in property prices when the stamp duty holiday does expire and any repositioning of the market is unlikely to occur until January next year, once we pause for breath over the Christmas period.”

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Table shows the average rate of monthly house price growth since the introduction of the stamp duty holiday and the latest available data point (Feb 2021) and what this rate of growth would put the average house price at by December 2021

Location Current Average House Price (Feb 2021) Average monthly change since start of SDLT holiday (July 2020) Potential Average House Price (Dec 2021) Potential Growth (%) Potential Growth (£)
England £268,291 0.84% £291,667 8.70% £23,376
South East £345,075 0.87% £376,251 9.00% £31,176
South West £279,242 0.92% £306,080 9.60% £26,838
London £496,269 0.43% £517,892 4.40% £21,623
North West £184,351 1.09% £205,456 11.40% £21,104
East Midlands £213,967 0.91% £234,193 9.50% £20,226
East of England £306,346 0.63% £326,102 6.40% £19,756
Yorkshire and the Humber £182,220 1.00% £201,381 10.50% £19,161
West Midlands region £215,451 0.81% £233,656 8.50% £18,206
North East £138,370 0.84% £150,509 8.80% £12,139

Property prices sourced from the Land Registry House Price Index - Jul 202 to Feb 2021 (latest available data)